NRL Analytics Weekly

📋 Round 10 Results — Model Report Card

😴 Bye Round 10:

Warriors

Round accuracy: 6/8 (75%) · ✅ correct ❌ wrong 🎲 toss-up (<55% conf)

Dolphins

✓ WINNER

44 - 12

Full Time

Bulldogs

🎲Model: Toss-up — tipped Dolphins (54.8%)

Roosters

✓ WINNER

28 - 12

Full Time

Titans

✅Model: Correct — Roosters (72.7%)

Cowboys

30 - 33

Full Time

Eels

✓ WINNER

❌Model: Wrong — tipped Cowboys (64.1%)

Dragons

10 - 44

Full Time

Knights

✓ WINNER

✅Model: Correct — Knights (60.3%)

Rabbitohs

✓ WINNER

36 - 12

Full Time

Sharks

🎲Model: Toss-up — tipped Sharks (53.3%)

Sea Eagles

✓ WINNER

32 - 4

Full Time

Broncos

🎲Model: Toss-up — tipped Sea Eagles (57.5%)

Storm

✓ WINNER

44 - 16

Full Time

Wests Tigers

✅Model: Correct — Storm (65.4%)

Raiders

18 - 30

Full Time

Panthers

✓ WINNER

✅Model: Correct — Panthers (65.5%)

Round 10 accuracy 6/8 correct (75%)

Season benchmark: 62.4% on 2025 (213 matches)

🏆 Ladder — Top 8

After Round 10. Green rows = top 8 finals position.

Pos	Team	P	W	L	Pts	Diff	Home	Away	Form
1	PEN Panthers	10	9	1	18	181	4/4	5/6	LWWWW
2	NZL Warriors	9	7	2	14	108	4/5	3/4	LWWWW
3	SYD Roosters	9	7	2	14	67	4/5	3/4	WWWWW
4	SOU Rabbitohs	9	6	3	12	92	4/5	2/4	LWWLW
5	NQL Cowboys	10	6	4	12	9	3/5	3/5	WLWWL
6	NEW Knights	10	6	4	12	4	3/5	3/5	LLLWW
7	MNL Sea Eagles	9	5	4	10	79	2/5	3/4	WWWLW
8	WST Wests Tigers	9	5	4	10	12	3/4	2/5	WLWLL

📈 Team Trajectory — Last 4 Rounds

Compares each team's last 4 games vs season average. Positive defence = conceding less recently.

Team	Status	Overall	Attack	Defence	Recent For	Recent Against
SYD Roosters	🔥 Hot	+15.1	+10.3	+4.8	41.5	19.0
SOU Rabbitohs	🔥 Hot	+9.8	+5.1	+4.7	38.0	18.0
MNL Sea Eagles	🔥 Hot	+9.5	+1.0	+8.5	29.8	11.5
DOL Dolphins	🔥 Hot	+9.4	+2.7	+6.8	28.0	16.2
PAR Eels	📈 Rising	+7.8	+3.1	+4.8	25.8	29.8
GCT Titans	📈 Rising	+7.4	+5.1	+2.3	24.0	23.5
CAN Raiders	📈 Rising	+5.0	+1.4	+3.6	21.5	24.2
NZL Warriors	➡️ Stable	+2.0	-0.4	+2.4	30.5	16.5
NEW Knights	➡️ Stable	-2.4	+2.9	-5.3	30.5	32.5
BRO Broncos	➡️ Stable	-2.5	-1.1	-1.4	20.2	25.5
NQL Cowboys	➡️ Stable	-2.6	+0.6	-3.2	27.5	29.2
CRO Sharks	➡️ Stable	-2.8	+1.6	-4.4	30.0	31.5
MEL Storm	📉 Fading	-5.6	-3.7	-1.9	20.5	29.5
SGI Dragons	📉 Fading	-6.4	+0.2	-6.7	14.0	41.0
PEN Panthers	📉 Fading	-6.4	-3.4	-3.0	28.8	17.0
BUL Bulldogs	❄️ Cold	-12.5	-3.4	-9.1	14.0	35.5
WST Wests Tigers	❄️ Cold	-14.3	-6.4	-8.0	19.8	32.8

🎲 Round 11 — Sportsbet Odds

Current head-to-head odds. ⭐ = market favourite. TBA = not yet published.

Date	Home	Home Odds	Away Odds	Away	Favourite
2026-05-15	CRO Sharks	$1.51	$2.56	BUL Bulldogs	⭐ Sharks
2026-05-15	SOU Rabbitohs	$1.98	$1.86	DOL Dolphins	⭐ Dolphins
2026-05-16	WST Wests Tigers	$3.12	$1.37	MNL Sea Eagles	⭐ Sea Eagles
2026-05-16	SYD Roosters	$1.19	$4.70	NQL Cowboys	⭐ Roosters
2026-05-16	PAR Eels	$3.12	$1.37	MEL Storm	⭐ Storm
2026-05-17	GCT Titans	$3.28	$1.34	NEW Knights	⭐ Knights
2026-05-17	NZL Warriors	$1.69	$2.17	BRO Broncos	⭐ Warriors
2026-05-17	PEN Panthers	$1.04	$11.50	SGI Dragons	⭐ Panthers

🤖 Round 11 — Our Model vs Sportsbet

Logistic regression trained on 2021–2024 NRL data. 62.4% accuracy on 2025 (213 matches).
👀 Value bet = Sportsbet offering $0.20+ more than our model's fair value. 🎲 Toss-up = model within 10% of 50/50.

Sharks

VS 71.3% · Strong

Bulldogs

Our Pick

Sharks

Our Odds

$1.40 / $3.48

Sportsbet

$1.51 / $2.56

Signal

—

Rabbitohs

VS 59.1% · Low

Dolphins

Our Pick

Rabbitohs

Our Odds

$1.69 / $2.44

Sportsbet

$1.98 / $1.86

Signal

👀 VALUE
Rabbitohs +$0.29

🎲 Toss-up

Wests Tigers

VS 53.1% · Low

Sea Eagles

Our Pick

Sea Eagles

Our Odds

$2.13 / $1.88

Sportsbet

$3.12 / $1.37

Signal

👀 VALUE
Wests Tigers +$0.99

🎲 Toss-up

Roosters

VS 67.7% · Medium

Cowboys

Our Pick

Roosters

Our Odds

$1.48 / $3.10

Sportsbet

$1.19 / $4.70

Signal

👀 VALUE
Cowboys +$1.60

Eels

VS 60.0% · Medium

Storm

Our Pick

Storm

Our Odds

$2.50 / $1.67

Sportsbet

$3.12 / $1.37

Signal

👀 VALUE
Eels +$0.62

🎲 Toss-up

Titans

VS 63.5% · Medium

Knights

Our Pick

Titans

Our Odds

$1.57 / $2.74

Sportsbet

$3.28 / $1.34

Signal

👀 VALUE
Titans +$1.71

Warriors

VS 63.6% · Medium

Broncos

Our Pick

Warriors

Our Odds

$1.57 / $2.75

Sportsbet

$1.69 / $2.17

Signal

—

Panthers

VS 94.7% · Strong

Dragons

Our Pick

Panthers

Our Odds

$1.06 / $18.73

Sportsbet

$1.04 / $11.50

Signal

—

⚠️ Not financial advice. Bet responsibly | 18+ | gamblinghelponline.org.au

⚡ Key Players Currently Injured

High-profile players (60+ 2025 SuperCoach avg) currently unavailable.

Joe Roddy (Raiders)

Hand — Return: Round 14

🟢 Near return

106 SC avg

Payne Haas (Broncos)

Knee — Return: Round 14

🟢 Near return

87 SC avg

Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs)

Knee — Return: Round 12

🟢 Near return

76 SC avg

David Fale (Dragons)

Hamstring — Return: TBC

🔴 Long-term

76 SC avg

Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters)

Ankle — Return: Round 15

🟢 Near return

75 SC avg

Valentine Holmes (Dragons)

Shoulder — Return: TBC

🔴 Long-term

75 SC avg

Eliesa Katoa (Storm)

Concussion — Return: Indefinite

🔴 Long-term

74 SC avg

Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles)

Hamstring — Return: Round 13

🟢 Near return

71 SC avg

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors)

Shoulder — Return: TBC

🔴 Long-term

69 SC avg

Jamal Fogarty (Sea Eagles)

Groin — Return: Round 11

🟢 Near return

68 SC avg

Heamasi Makasini (Wests Tigers)

Foot — Return: Round 13

🟢 Near return

67 SC avg

Blayke Brailey (Sharks)

Head knock — Return: TBC

🔴 Long-term

67 SC avg

Viliame Kikau (Bulldogs)

Pectoral — Return: Round 20

🟢 Near return

66 SC avg

Murray Taulagi (Cowboys)

Concussion — Return: Round 12

🟢 Near return

66 SC avg

Isaiah Iongi (Eels)

Ankle — Return: Round 13

🟢 Near return

66 SC avg

Kotoni Staggs (Broncos)

Suspension — Return: Round 12

🟢 Near return

65 SC avg

Xavier Coates (Storm)

Achilles — Return: Round 12

🟢 Near return

65 SC avg

Adam Reynolds (Broncos)

Head knock — Return: TBC

🔴 Long-term

65 SC avg

Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs)

Back — Return: Round 12

🟢 Near return

64 SC avg

Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks)

ACL — Return: TBC

🔴 Long-term

64 SC avg

Jaydn Su'A (Dragons)

Suspension — Return: Round 12

🟢 Near return

63 SC avg

Zac Hosking (Raiders)

Concussion — Return: Indefinite

🔴 Long-term

63 SC avg

Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers)

Shoulder — Return: Round 15

🟢 Near return

62 SC avg

🏅 SuperCoach Draft Tips — Round 11

Based on 2025 season averages + 2026 opponent defensive strength.
🔥 Dream · ✅ Good · ➡️ Neutral · ⚠️ Tough · 🚫 Avoid · 😴 BYE
Always check Thursday team lists before locking in picks.

⭐ Top Plays This Week

Eliesa KatoaMEL

74 SC avg

🔥 vs Eels (AWAY) — 🔥 Dream matchup

Cameron MunsterMEL

70 SC avg

🔥 vs Eels (AWAY) — 🔥 Dream matchup

Nathan ClearyPTH

84 SC avg

🔥 vs Dragons (HOME) — 🔥 Dream matchup

Dylan EdwardsPTH

80 SC avg

🔥 vs Dragons (HOME) — 🔥 Dream matchup

Jacob KirazBUL

76 SC avg

✅ vs Sharks (AWAY) — ✅ Good matchup

Jacob PrestonBUL

70 SC avg

✅ vs Sharks (AWAY) — ✅ Good matchup

Isaiah IongiPAR

66 SC avg

✅ vs Storm (HOME) — ✅ Good matchup

Jack WilliamsPAR

62 SC avg

✅ vs Storm (HOME) — ✅ Good matchup

💎 Value Picks

Jahrome HughesMEL

65 SC avg

🔥 vs Eels (AWAY) — 🔥 Dream matchup

Harry GrantMEL

62 SC avg

🔥 vs Eels (AWAY) — 🔥 Dream matchup

Lindsay SmithPTH

63 SC avg

🔥 vs Dragons (HOME) — 🔥 Dream matchup

Isaah YeoPTH

62 SC avg

🔥 vs Dragons (HOME) — 🔥 Dream matchup

⚠️ Watch Out — BYE or Tough Matchup

Joe Roddy(CBR)

106 SC avg

😴 BYE

Payne Haas(BRO)

87 SC avg

🚫 Tough — vs Warriors

Reece Walsh(BRO)

85 SC avg

🚫 Tough — vs Warriors

Terrell May(WST)

83 SC avg

🚫 Tough — vs Sea Eagles

Hudson Young(CBR)

77 SC avg

😴 BYE

David Fale(STG)

76 SC avg

🚫 Tough — vs Panthers

😴 BYE Round 11: Raiders

🏥 Full Injury & Suspension Report

All players currently listed as injured or suspended.

🔴 Long-term/TBC 🟠 4–8 weeks 🟡 2–4 weeks 🟢 Near return

Team

Sort by

99 players

Player	Team	Injury	Return	Severity	2025 SC Avg
Billy Walters	Broncos	ACL	TBC	🔴 Long-term	42
Corey Jensen	Broncos	Lung	TBC	🔴 Long-term	40
Deine Mariner	Broncos	Thigh	TBC	🔴 Long-term	50
Brendan Piakura	Broncos	Knee	TBC	🔴 Long-term	31
Adam Reynolds	Broncos	Head knock	TBC	🔴 Long-term	65
Benjamin Te Kura	Broncos	Personal	Round 12	🟢 Near return	19
Kotoni Staggs	Broncos	Suspension	Round 12	🟢 Near return	65
Blake Mozer	Broncos	Jaw	Round 13	🟢 Near return	—
Payne Haas	Broncos	Knee	Round 14	🟢 Near return	87
Delouise Hoeter	Broncos	Leg	Round 15	🟢 Near return	50
Grant Anderson	Broncos	Knee	Round 16	🟢 Near return	54
Max King	Bulldogs	Jaw	TBC	🔴 Long-term	60
Kurt Mann	Bulldogs	Head knock	TBC	🔴 Long-term	39
Jake Turpin	Bulldogs	Biceps	TBC	🔴 Long-term	22
Mitchell Woods	Bulldogs	Hamstring	TBC	🔴 Long-term	—
Matt Burton	Bulldogs	Illness	Round 11	🟢 Near return	57
Jacob Kiraz	Bulldogs	Knee	Round 12	🟢 Near return	76
Viliame Kikau	Bulldogs	Pectoral	Round 20	🟢 Near return	66
Murray Taulagi	Cowboys	Concussion	Round 12	🟢 Near return	66
Jeremiah Nanai	Cowboys	Shoulder	Round 13	🟢 Near return	52
Soni Luke	Cowboys	Knee	Round 14	🟢 Near return	25
Tom Dearden	Cowboys	Ankle	Round 16	🟢 Near return	—
Francis Molo	Dolphins	Ankle	TBC	🔴 Long-term	43
Daniel Saifiti	Dolphins	Shoulder	TBC	🔴 Long-term	—
Kurt Donoghoe	Dolphins	Hamstring	Round 11	🟢 Near return	51
Jake Averillo	Dolphins	Hand	Round 15	🟢 Near return	59
Mathew Feagai	Dragons	Back	TBC	🔴 Long-term	59
David Fale	Dragons	Hamstring	TBC	🔴 Long-term	76
Valentine Holmes	Dragons	Shoulder	TBC	🔴 Long-term	75
Nathan Lawson	Dragons	Head knock	TBC	🔴 Long-term	34
Jacob Liddle	Dragons	Hamstring	TBC	🔴 Long-term	46
Moses Suli	Dragons	Back	Round 11	🟢 Near return	49
Luciano Leilua	Dragons	Suspension	Round 11	🟢 Near return	43
Daniel Atkinson	Dragons	Hand	Round 11	🟢 Near return	21
Jaydn Su'A	Dragons	Suspension	Round 12	🟢 Near return	63
J'maine Hopgood	Eels	ACL	Next Season	🔴 Long-term	53
Matt Doorey	Eels	Knee	Next Season	🔴 Long-term	—
Will Penisini	Eels	Groin	TBC	🔴 Long-term	51
Bailey Simonsson	Eels	Ankle	TBC	🔴 Long-term	52
Ryley Smith	Eels	Sternum	Round 11	🟢 Near return	39
Jonah Pezet	Eels	Suspension	Round 11	🟢 Near return	19
Isaiah Iongi	Eels	Ankle	Round 13	🟢 Near return	66
Sam Tuivaiti	Eels	Shoulder	Round 13	🟢 Near return	30
Thomas Cant	Knights	Calf	Round 11	🟢 Near return	39
Liam Martin	Panthers	Knee	TBC	🔴 Long-term	48
Mitch Kenny	Panthers	Leg	Round 17	🟢 Near return	—
Jai Arrow	Rabbitohs	Shoulder	Indefinite	🔴 Long-term	55
Isaiah Tass	Rabbitohs	ACL	TBC	🔴 Long-term	38
Brandon Smith	Rabbitohs	Calf	TBC	🔴 Long-term	28
Latrell Mitchell	Rabbitohs	Back	Round 12	🟢 Near return	64
Jamie Humphreys	Rabbitohs	Knee	Round 12	🟢 Near return	38
David Fifita	Rabbitohs	Hamstring	Round 12	🟢 Near return	50
Jack Wighton	Rabbitohs	Arm	Round 18	🟢 Near return	45
Zac Hosking	Raiders	Concussion	Indefinite	🔴 Long-term	63
Noah Martin	Raiders	Ankle	TBC	🔴 Long-term	28
Simi Sasagi	Raiders	Shoulder	TBC	🔴 Long-term	41
Joe Roddy	Raiders	Hand	Round 14	🟢 Near return	106
Josh Papalii	Raiders	Calf	Round 14	🟢 Near return	48
Xavier Savage	Raiders	Ankle	Round 14	🟢 Near return	42
Blake Steep	Roosters	ACL	Next Season	🔴 Long-term	40
Lindsay Collins	Roosters	Head knock	TBC	🔴 Long-term	42
Billy Smith	Roosters	Knee	Round 11	🟢 Near return	52
Tommy Talau	Roosters	Calf	Round 11	🟢 Near return	36
Victor Radley	Roosters	Suspension	Round 13	🟢 Near return	49
Mark Nawaqanitawase	Roosters	Ankle	Round 15	🟢 Near return	75
Kobe Hetherington	Sea Eagles	Concussion	TBC	🔴 Long-term	44
Siosiua Taukeiaho	Sea Eagles	Leg	TBC	🔴 Long-term	—
Caleb Navale	Sea Eagles	ACL	TBC	🔴 Long-term	32
Jamal Fogarty	Sea Eagles	Groin	Round 11	🟢 Near return	68
Brandon Wakeham	Sea Eagles	Suspension	Round 11	🟢 Near return	—
Tom Trbojevic	Sea Eagles	Hamstring	Round 13	🟢 Near return	71
Corey Waddell	Sea Eagles	Pectoral	Round 21	🟢 Near return	44
Liam Ison	Sharks	Knee	TBC	🔴 Long-term	—
Blayke Brailey	Sharks	Head knock	TBC	🔴 Long-term	67
Ronaldo Mulitalo	Sharks	ACL	TBC	🔴 Long-term	64
Jesse Ramien	Sharks	Knee	Round 11	🟢 Near return	51
Sione Katoa	Sharks	Ankle	Round 14	🟢 Near return	56
Eliesa Katoa	Storm	Concussion	Indefinite	🔴 Long-term	74
Sua Fa'alogo	Storm	Head knock	TBC	🔴 Long-term	58
Alec MacDonald	Storm	Hamstring	TBC	🔴 Long-term	34
Marion Seve	Storm	Triceps	TBC	🔴 Long-term	32
Xavier Coates	Storm	Achilles	Round 12	🟢 Near return	65
Tyran Wishart	Storm	Ankle	Round 15	🟢 Near return	41
Jaimin Jolliffe	Titans	Knee	Next Season	🔴 Long-term	51
Brock Gray	Titans	ACL	TBC	🔴 Long-term	17
Tukimihia Simpkins	Titans	Knee	Round 12	🟢 Near return	27
Siale Faeamani	Titans	Knee	Round 13	🟢 Near return	—
Wayde Egan	Warriors	Head knock	TBC	🔴 Long-term	54
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck	Warriors	Shoulder	TBC	🔴 Long-term	69
Tanner Stowers-Smith	Warriors	Hamstring	Round 11	🟢 Near return	33
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad	Warriors	Neck	Round 11	🟢 Near return	53
Mitch Barnett	Warriors	Concussion	Round 11	🟢 Near return	—
Rocco Berry	Warriors	Shoulder	Round 11	🟢 Near return	34
Jye Linnane	Warriors	Knee	Round 12	🟢 Near return	—
Heamasi Makasini	Wests Tigers	Foot	Round 13	🟢 Near return	67
Apisai Koroisau	Wests Tigers	Suspension	Round 13	🟢 Near return	55
Jahream Bula	Wests Tigers	Shoulder	Round 15	🟢 Near return	62
Adam Doueihi	Wests Tigers	Shoulder	Round 16	🟢 Near return	57
Samuela Fainu	Wests Tigers	Foot	Round 22	🟢 Near return	52

🏉 NRL Analytics Weekly

📋 Round 10 Results — Model Report Card

🏆 Ladder — Top 8

📈 Team Trajectory — Last 4 Rounds

🎲 Round 11 — Sportsbet Odds

🤖 Round 11 — Our Model vs Sportsbet

⚡ Key Players Currently Injured

🏅 SuperCoach Draft Tips — Round 11

⭐ Top Plays This Week

💎 Value Picks

⚠️ Watch Out — BYE or Tough Matchup

🏥 Full Injury & Suspension Report